Outcome Probability Calculator

The outcome probability calculates the probability of a win, draw, and loss given the minute, venue, and current goal differential. The probabilities are calculated using historical EPL game data to create probabilities for each outcome. Try it out below by entering the minute, score, and venue.

Minute =

Game Score

Up By 3
Up By 2
Up By 1
Tied
Down By 1
Down By 2
Down By 3

Home or Away

Home Away


Win Probability =  %
Draw Probability =  %
Loss Probability =  %